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Keplerian and Transit Guestimator

Precision-RV helper for quick-order detectability and climate context. Enter stellar and planetary masses, then explore stellar reflex semi-amplitude K and equilibrium temperature as functions of orbital period. Designed for exoplanet follow-up triage.

Sample systems

Stellar properties

Named-star lookup uses SIMBAD and Gaia DR3.

Planet properties

A = 0.30
Full redistribution (ε = 1.00)

RV assumptions

Period sampling

Stellar luminosity-
Stellar radius-
Stellar Teff-
Conservative HZ period-
Optimistic HZ period-
Sources: custom/manual values and main-sequence fallback relations.

Detailed printout at target period

Orbit & Radial Velocity

Target period-
Semi-major axis-
Input planet mass-
Teq-
HZ membership-
RV semi-amplitude K-
pRV precision σinst-
Stellar jitter σjitter-
K / pRV-
Detectability-
Min. detectable mass-
NRV for mass precision-

Transit & Atmosphere

Transit depth-
Planetary log(g) [cgs]-
Scale height-
Atm. transit signal-

Astrometry & Imaging

Astrometric α*-
Orbital separation-
Reflected (panchromatic)-
Thermal 1 µm-
Thermal 5 µm-
Thermal 10 µm-
Thermal 25 µm-
Methods and references
1) Reflex semi-amplitude assumes circular orbit and sin(i) = 1: K = [(2piG)/P]1/3 * Mp / (Mstar + Mp)2/3.
2) Main-sequence scaling uses piecewise Lstar(Mstar) and Rstar proportional to Mstar0.8 (quick-look approximation).
3) Equilibrium temperature uses configurable redistribution efficiency ε: Teq = [Lstar(1 - A) / (4pi sigma a2(2 + 2ε))]1/4, with ε = 1 for full redistribution and ε = 0 for dayside-only re-radiation.
Assumption note: A is the Bond albedo (fraction of incident stellar flux reflected at all wavelengths and phase angles). Real planets with inefficient redistribution or strong greenhouse effects can have dayside temperatures higher than this quick-look Teq estimate.
4) Habitable-zone limits are from Kopparapu et al. 2013 (ApJ 765, 131) and updated coefficients from Kopparapu et al. 2014 (ApJL 787, L29), converted to period using Kepler's third law.
5) Spectral-type to stellar-mass quick-look mapping uses representative dwarf values from Pecaut and Mamajek 2013 (ApJS 208, 9) (main-sequence dwarf parameter table, updated online).
6) Transit depth = (Rp/Rstar)2. Planet radius Rp inferred from mass using piecewise empirical mass-radius relations:
Mass rangeRelationReference
< 10 M (rocky)R = 1.02 × M0.28Parc et al. 2024 (A&A 688, A59)
10–138 M (volatile-rich)R = 0.61 × M0.67Parc et al. 2024 (A&A 688, A59)
138–4100 M (giant planets)R = 11.9 × M0.01Parc et al. 2024 (A&A 688, A59)
4100–50000 M (brown dwarfs)RM0.08 (Baraffe)Baraffe et al. model grid
> 50000 M (M dwarfs)R = 1.06 × M0.57Pecaut & Mamajek 2013

Range reflects ~15% natural scatter in M-R relations across different compositions and stellar activity.

7) Surface gravity: log(g) = log(GM/R2).
8) Atmospheric scale height: H = Rspecific × Teq / g, where Rspecific = Rgas / Mmol for H₂ (2 g/mol), N₂ (28 g/mol), and CO₂ (44 g/mol).
9) Number of RV observations to measure planet mass at fractional precision p (white noise, Cloutier et al. 2018, AJ 156, 82, eq. 18): NRV = 2 × (σeff / (p × K))2, where σeff = √(σinst2 + σjitter2).
10) Astrometric semi-amplitude (sky plane): α* = (Mp / (M* + Mp)) × (a / d) in arcsec, with a in au and d in pc.
11) Atmospheric transmission signal: Total transit depth ≈ geometric depth + (~3 scale heights) × 2H/Rp × (geometric depth), representing additional depth from atmospheric absorption and scattering extending ~3 scale heights above the nominal photosphere.

Planets below the stellar activity line
They are not automatically lost: they can still be recovered, but doing so requires increasingly accurate modeling and correction of the activity signal as the planetary RV amplitude drops further below the activity level.

Understanding atmospheric signals:
The atmospheric signal shows the total observed transit depth when the planet's atmosphere is present, versus the bare geometric (solid-body) transit depth listed in the row above.

Why atmospheres deepen transits: During transit, starlight passes through the planet's limb and is absorbed and scattered by atmospheric gases high above the solid surface. Since the atmosphere has a finite scale height H, it extends roughly 3–5 H above the apparent photosphere (the "surface" radius measured in transit). This extended absorbing layer increases the projected cross-section, which deepens the observed transit depth beyond geometry alone. This is called atmospheric transmission or the atmospheric signal.

Composition sets the amplitude: Example: HD 189733 b has a hydrogen-dominated atmosphere. Its geometric transit depth is ~2%; with H₂ atmosphere it rises to ~2.2% (atmospheric signal adds ~0.2 ppt). The same planet with pure CO₂ would show only ~2.02%, barely detectable. This difference is observable in transmission spectroscopy and reveals composition.

Key insight: Strong atmospheric signals = extended atmospheres = light gases (H/He). Weak or absent signals = compressed atmospheres or no atmosphere = heavy gases or rocky bodies. The three values (H₂, N₂, CO₂) bracket the plausible range for most solar-system-like and exoplanet atmospheres.

12) Contrast ratios
Reflected light (panchromatic): Crefl = Ag × (Rp / a)2 at full phase (opposition), where the geometric albedo Ag ≈ ⅔ × ABond (Lambertian sphere approximation).
Thermal emission: Ctherm(λ) = (Rp / R*)2 × B(λ, Teq) / B(λ, Teff), where B(λ, T) is the Planck function. Contrast values are expressed in scientific notation and in magnitudes: Δmag = −2.5 × log10(C).
13) Orbital separation on sky: θ = a (au) / d (pc) in arcsec, converted to mas.